As you read this, barrels and barrels' worth of crude is flowing unchecked into the Gulf of Mexico. Attempts to stop the flow have repeatedly failed. Meanwhile, the dire environmental and economic consequences of what may be the worst environmental disaster in human history are already making themselves felt. And for many it feels like a punch in the stomach.
While it may not be immediately obvious to those of us as far away from the Gulf as Wisconsin, the BP oil spill could trigger a sea change (no pun intended) in public sentiment and policy regarding energy and the environment.
Could the Gulf oil spill be an environmental 9/11 that prompts America to wholeheartedly embrace solar energy and other renewable energy options?
Depending on the severity of the spill and its consequences, it very well might. While it's unlikely we'll see the end of off-shore drilling any time soon, Americans are now more likely to oppose offshore oil drilling than support it. www.cbsnews.com And public concern over the safety of offshore drilling could result in legislation and restrictions on the practice – which could very well result in a rise in the price of oil. Rising fuel prices, of course, result in a much faster payback for solar – thus mitigating one of the biggest barriers to sales of solar installations and equipment.
The political climate, too, could turn even more favorably towards clean energy solutions. The spill has already prompted coastal state governors Charlie Crist of Florida and Arnold Schwarzenegger of California to renounce offshore drilling as not worth the risk. A May, 2010 poll www.pollingreport.com/energy by the PEW Research Center indicates that Americans overwhelmingly (73%) support increased funding for renewable energy, including solar, wind and hydrogen.
And perhaps most importantly, like the 9/11/2001 terrorist attacks, the enormity of this environmental disaster and its consequences may be enough to shake the American people from their complacency. Combined with faster payback and increased political support and funding, its effect could be momentous. Since solar still represents only a tiny fraction of energy produced in the U.S., even a small increase in the percentage of Americans investing in solar could result in massive growth in the industry.
What does this mean for the future of independent solar providers?
Will growth in demand for solar result in better business for solar companies across the board?
In the short term, probably. But if you're a solar provider don't sit back on your heels. As the industry expands and matures, expect changes ahead.
One big one? Consolidation and the trend towards larger companies. We're already seeing it at the corporate level amongst solar manufacturers. (For instance, in the concentrating solar thermal arena, witness Ausra's recent buyout by nuclear energy manufacturer Areva, and Solel's acquisition by the multinational Siemens.) But don't count on it's not happening on Main Street, USA. For instance, here in Wisconsin there are dozens of full-service solar thermal and PV installers listed with Focus on Energy, the state's renewable energy regulatory agency. But the lion's share of installation sales goes to a small handful of them each year.
As the demand for solar rises, we may see more small-scale installers initially. But energy is big business, and as the percentage of total energy supplied by solar rises, so will the size of the average company supplying it. (Don't rule out the possibility of regional utilites diversifying into residential solar, either.)
Another trend to anticipate is increasing regulation in the solar industry. Right now in Wisconsin it's pretty easy to become a certified installer. But as the industry matures, look for more regulatory laws involving certification and installation to be passed and enforced.
Does this mean curtains for you, if you're one of the many small solar installation companies scattered throughout Wisconsin and the rest of the United States and Canada?
No, not at all. But it does mean it's wise to be prepared.
Developing a strong presence in your market now will help you prepare for changes and developments that may impact your solar energy business in the future. And that means paying attention to your presentation, your image, your market share and your sales strategy.
Do you have a strategy in place that will help you expand with the market and capitalize on the opportunities coming your way? Have you given any thought to branding? Do you have the professional image and market presence you'll need to remain competitive through future transitions in the market?
This is a formative (and potentially volatile) time in the solar industry. Have you assembled your home team yet? You'll want to pick strong players. The time for aggressive growth and positioning is now!
Cummings | Designs provides sales driven branding and design services for the solar industry. To find out how we can help you position your company as a go-to provider, call (414) 378-2747 or contact us at carl@carldesigns.com.
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